Six months after the historic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was announced in June 2015 by Secretary Kerry as the deal that would prevent Iran from ever obtaining nuclear weapons, the truth is now apparent to everyone except the most diehard Obama supporters. America gave Iran everything it demanded and even more, and in return got virtually nothing! While much as been written about the short comings of the deal itself and how it was almost completely one sided, very little attention has been given to what has happened since the deal was made. Let’s review the events that have occurred since the JCPOA was announced:
- The Washington Post (which endorsed both Obama’s presidential runs), editorialized against the deal:
“Iran is following through on the nuclear deal it struck with a U.S.-led coalition in an utterly predictable way: It is racing to fulfill those parts of the accord that will allow it to collect $100 billion in frozen funds and end sanctions on its oil exports and banking system, while expanding its belligerent and illegal activities in other areas — and daring the West to respond.” The Post was referring to the UN panel that determined that Iran test-fired a nuclear-capable missile on Oct. 10, in violation of a UN resolution that prohibits such launches. Moreover, it appears likely that a second missile launch occurred on Nov. 21, also in violation of Security Council Resolution 1929. The sole purpose of these ballistic missiles is to carry nuclear tipped warheads over distances as far as Europe and eventually North America. Iran already has missiles capable of hitting the entire middle east including Israel. The JCPOA prohibits testing of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads.
- Another new U.N. report shows Iran has had a very active nuclear weapons development program stretching back decades in complete contradiction to their years of denial up to an including the negotiation of the JCPOA. On December 2, 2015, International Atomic Energy Agency Director-General Yukiya Amano presented to the IAEA member states his long-awaited report on Iran’s Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of its nuclear program.
- The report clearly indicted Iran for developing nuclear weapons, contrary to its persistent denials, claims and statements that it never did so.
- It would be imprudent not to assume that Iran already has a working nuclear explosive mechanism design, received from Pakistan, the same way Libya did, and its research and development activities were intended to improve this design, not to invent it.
- In spite of the overwhelming evidence that a nuclear weapons program has existed, Iran stated very openly that were they to be condemned or sanctioned for lying about the program for a decade plus, they would immediately withdraw from the JCPOA.
- The U.S. And the U.N. Therefore did nothing and will do nothing.
- Iran is already violating the terms of the JCPOA by not complying with key date achievements….there is a lengthy list of key milestones that Iran apparently has no intention of meeting by the deadlines set in the JCPOA. Key components that are not being met by December 15, 2015 include:
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*reducing the centrifuges at Natanz from over 16,000 to 5,060 IR-1 machines, which will enrich uranium to 3.67 percent, and removing the associated infrastructure;
*reducing the number of IR-1 machines centrifuges at Fordow to 1,000 (328 will operate) and converting the facility for radioisotope production;
*wrapping up testing on advanced centrifuges machines and removing all advanced centrifuges except one IR-4, IR-5, IR-6, and IR-8 machine for testing with uranium;
*storing all dismantled centrifuges under IAEA seal;
*reducing the stockpile of enriched uranium to less than 300 kilograms;
*removing the core of the Arak reactor and disabling it; and
*instituting the necessary transparency and monitoring mechanisms to implement Iran’s additional protocol and the continuous surveillance of key facilities.
- Iran hacked into New York dam in 2013 sparking panic that reached the White House. Never announced to the American public. Per the Wall Street Journal, a hacker could theoretically control the flow in pipelines, the movements of drawbridges and water releases from dams. This act of cyber terrorism was just discovered reported by the press not the government.
- Iran has added nine key conditions to the JCPOA that if not agreed to by the United States, means that Iran will NOT COMPLY with the presently written JCPOA.
The nine new conditions laid out by Khamenei creates a situation in which not only does the Iranian side refrain from approving the JCPOA, but, with nearly every point, creates a separate obstacle, such that executing the agreement is not possible.
The following are Khamenei’s nine conditions, and their implications:
First condition: Khamenei demands that the U.S. and Europe lift the sanctions, not suspend them, and in addition demands “solid and sufficient” guarantees in advance that this will be done, before Iran takes its own steps and meets its own obligations under the agreement. These guarantees, insists Khamenei, must include, inter alia, an official letter from the U.S. president and from the EU undertaking to fully lift the sanctions. Furthermore, he demands that this letter will state that any declaration by the West that the “structure of the sanctions will remain in force” (i.e. allowing snapback) will be considered “non-compliance with the JCPOA” on the part of the West.
Implications: These conditions constitute a total change of the JCPOA. Khamenei is not allowing any execution of the JCPOA by Iran until this is accepted in writing by the other side, and thus he is nullifying the JCPOA as agreed upon on July 14, 2015.
Second condition: Any sanctions against Iran “at every level and on every pretext,” including terrorism and human rights violations, by any one of the countries participating in the negotiations will “constitute a violation of the JCPOA,” and a reason for Iran to stop executing the agreement.
Implications: This demand, that links the JCPOA to other issues and prohibits any punishment of Iran on any issue and for any reason, serves as an excuse for Iran to cancel the agreement.
Third condition: Under the JCPOA, Iran is obligated, following the JCPOA’s Adoption Day, to carry out its obligations concerning changing the function of the nuclear reactor at Arak and shipping out most of its stockpile of enriched uranium. Contrary to this, Khamenei is changing the timetable of the JCPOA, stating that Iran will not carry out these actions until after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declares that it is closing its dossier on Iran’s “past and future issues (including the so-called Possible Military Dimensions or PMD of Iran’s nuclear program).”
Implications: This demand to change the timetable creates a situation in which Iran will not take action as stipulated in the JCPOA, and will not meet its obligations, before the sanctions are eased, also according to the JCPOA, but instead dictates that the sanctions must first be lifted completely and states that only then will Iran meet its obligations. Khamenei here is creating a situation in which the IAEA will not be able to report on Iran’s meeting of its obligations regarding the Arak reactor and regarding the shipping out of its enriched uranium by the target date of December 15, 2015, because Iran is not going to do so by then – thus the execution of the agreement is thwarted from the beginning.
Fourth condition: Iran will meet its obligations to “renovate” and change the purpose of the Arak reactor only after there is a signed agreement on an “alternative plan” for changes to the reactor, and after there is “sufficient guarantee” that this alternative plan will be implemented.
Implications: Iran’s fulfillment of its obligations regarding the Arak reactor, as stipulated by the JCPOA, will be postponed until some unknown future date.
Fifth condition: Iran will carry out its obligation to ship out its enriched uranium to another country in exchange for yellowcake “on a gradual basis and on numerous occasions,” and only after “a secure agreement has been clinched to that effect, along with sufficient guarantees” that this exchange will be implemented.
Implications: The date for Iran to ship out its enriched uranium as stipulated by the JCPOA is postponed until some unknown future date. Khamenei is demanding that Iran receive in exchange for the enriched uranium not raw uranium as per the JCPOA, but instead uranium that has been enriched, albeit to a lower level than the uranium it ships out. This is yet another change to the JCPOA as concluded on July 14, 2015.
Sixth condition: Khamenei instructs President Rohani to begin, along with reducing Iran’s ability to enrich uranium under the JCPOA, immediately to expand Iran’s ability to enrich uranium with a 15-year long-term plan for 190,000 centrifuge SWU (Separative Work Units). “This plan,” he says, “must allay any concern stemming from some points entailed in the JCPOA appendices.”
Implications: This article nullifies the declared goal of the JCPOA, which is to reduce Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities.
Seventh condition: The Iranian Atomic Energy Organization must ensure continued nuclear research and development, in its various dimensions, such that in eight years’ time, Iran will not be lacking in enrichment technology. This, he says, is all in accordance with the JCPOA.
Eighth condition: In the event of doubt or ambiguity regarding the content of the JCPOA, the source of authority for removing this doubt or ambiguity will be the content of the talks – i.e. it will also include the statements by the Iranian side, not just the “interpretation provided by the opposite party,” that is, the P5+1.
Implications: Any doubt or ambiguity regarding the content of the JCPOA will become the source of unending dispute and will paralyze any possibility of executing the agreement.
Ninth condition: Due to apprehensions that the other side, particularly the U.S., will break its promises or cheat, President Rohani must establish a “well-informed and smart panel” to monitor the execution of the agreement.
Implications: Khamenei is creating an administrative framework for perpetual delays in the execution of the agreement.
The JCPOA was never signed and apparently will NEVER be signed by Iran. By now the world knows that U.S. Inspectors will never be allowed into. Hopefully the Iranian continual breaches of the document will lead to an insurrection in the Congress and eventually litigation to block the White House from unilaterally complying with the terms and releasing $100billion++!