I predict Alaska will go to Republican Dan Sullivan, Arkansas will go to Republican Tom Cotton, and Iowa will go to Republican Jodi Ernst.
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 election?
With Republicans picking up Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, that puts the number at 48.
Colorado looks good for a win with Republican Cory Gardner, but with a first time mail in only ballot election and the fact that people can register and vote on the day of the elections this is one to watch carefully. A Colorado Republican win puts the Senate Republican seats at 49.
There are two races where a third party candidate might forestall the final winner until runoff elections in December:
Republican Bill Cassidy is ahead of incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, but Tea Party Republican Rob Maness is pulling nearly 10%. If Cassidy does not win a majority on November 4th, he will win in the runoff on December 6th. That would result in 50 Senate seats.
In Georgia, Republican David Perdue and Democrat Michelle Nunn are very close in the polls, but Libertarian Amanda Swafford is pulling nearly 5%, which might result in neither candidate getting the 50% they need to win and will result in a runoff. If Perdue does not win on November 4th, he will win in the runoff. That puts Republicans at 51 Senate seats, and the majority.
In North Carolina, Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh is pulling 6%, while Democrat Kay Hagen and Republican Tom Tillis are within 3 percent of each other in the polls. Projections are very close, but I believe that North Carolina will go to the Republican. That would result in 52 Senate seats.
I see a very possible runoff in Louisiana and Georgia, so the final determination of which party will retain or secure a majority may not occur until December, but I do believe the Republicans will win the Senate majority.
There are a couple of unknown factors in these Senate races that might affect these predictions. If the Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts succeed in getting those who do not usually participate in mid-term elections to vote, such as minorities and millennials, it would favor the Democrats. We also have to consider the very real and apparently widespread voter fraud which invariably seems to favor the Democrats.