Primary Races to Watch On May 20, 2014

Democrats currently control the chamber 55 to 45.  There are two independents who usually vote with them; however, this could be the year for GOP to take the Senate back.

Critical races are Kentucky, Arkansas and Georgia where seats are up for the House and Senate.

Other states that are not getting as much attention, but where seats are also up for the House and Senate are Oregon, Idaho and in Pennsylvania, incumbent Gov. Tom Corbett will probably lose his turn at another term.

Kentucky:  Tea Party favorite, Matt Bevin is running 20 points behind Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell (R-KY) according to a Bluegrass poll.  Whoever wins will face Lundergan Grimes, Democrat.  As of this writing, the two are in a dead heat for what appears to be hotly contested in November.

Arkansas:  It’s expected for Democrat incumbent, Sen. Mark Pryor to move on to November against Republican Tom Cotton who is expected to win the GOP primary.  This is a conservative-leaning state, and will be a good opportunity for a Republican win in November.

Georgia:  Seven Republicans are running against each other in the primary.  In order to avoid a runoff, one candidate has to earn 50% of the votes to be the party’s nominee in November.  However, that is not likely to happen so the top two will face a runoff on July 22 to run against Democrat Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former Democrat Sen. Sam Nunn.  The Democrats are counting on her to be one of their strongest candidates in the Senate races.

Oregon:  Not drawing as much attention as Kentucky, Arkansas and Georgia for the May 20 primary, surgeon Monica Wehby is well-liked by the GOP establishment and has been endorsed by Mitt Romney.  If she wins the primary, she will face off Democrat incumbent Sen. Jeff Merkley.  This will be an interesting state to watch because the state’s health care system cost over $300 million, only to be scrapped even though Oregon is far to the left of the political spectrum.

Idaho and Pennsylvania:  Watch the Tea Party candidate in Idaho.

Idaho:  However, Rep. Mike Simpson (R-Idaho) will probably be the victor over Bryan Smith who was endorsed by the anti-tax Club for Growth early on, but they pulled back on their spending.

Pennsylvania:  GOP Governor Tom Corbett is not well liked and 63% of the voters believe it’s time to choose a new governor.  Forty-two percent of his own party thinks he should be re-elected according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll.  The term  “one of the most vulnerable governors up for re-election” has been used to describe Corbett’s chances.  He trails all but one of his possible Democrat rivals by 2 to 12 percentage points.  Former Sen. Arlen Specter was the only one to score worse than Corbett.