The other day, as I was getting my morning coffee from the shared kitchen at the movie studio where I work, I overheard one of the big muckety-mucks saying to another big muckety-muck that Obama is going to win.
“The race is over,” he declared. Muckety-muck #2 agreed, citing the “big bounce” Obama enjoyed after the convention and how the polls now have him at over 50%. They were practically high fiving each other. I sighed inwardly, and walked dejectedly back to my office.
During my lunch hour, I did some research. Everywhere I looked, item after item said, “the election is over.” Gallup was showing that Obama was up by five points. I saw that even the conservative commentators on Fox News were lamenting about the polls.
“Game over” was basically the message and in my mind, the fact that this race is so close is mind-boggling.
Nearly two-thirds of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction or is on the wrong track. We have 8.1% unemployment (which only dropped down from 8.3% because eight million people are no longer counted as unemployed, because they gave up looking for a job).
No one has ever won re-election with such numbers. So what is up with the polls?
Gallup has consistently shown a big drop-off in enthusiasm among Democrats this election, especially compared to 2008. Yet, the media pollsters continue to base their polling samples on a model that would mimic the 2008 election.
But it’s not 2008. How excited could Democrats be? As excited as they were in 2008? Are they seriously saying, “Hooray for massive unemployment, sky-rocketing debt, unsustainable entitlements, high gas prices, counter-productive financial regulation, dejected doctors, fifty-somethings on disability, and twenty-somethings living with their parents!”
Something is just not adding up.
According to Dean Chambers of the Washington Examiner, Mitt Romney actually has a five percent lead by un-skewed Gallup poll data. He said:
“By skewing the poll, it gives Obama a five-point lead instead of showing Romney leading by the same total. Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.”
I understand that pollsters have to weight their samples, but why is it that virtually all pollsters, except Rasmussen, weight their samples so that it’s always advantageous for Obama? [“Weight” is actually the correct term]
But even if Romney is five points ahead of Obama, given the state of the economy and now the Arab Spring turned American Winter, one would think that even a Snookie/Kardashian ticket would do better than Obama/Biden. So what is up?
It’s a known fact that Obama has two advantages Romney doesn’t have. He’s got a lapdog media and the bully pulpit — and he’s already using both to his advantage.
Rush Limbaugh spoke recently about the former on his radio show:
“I have never seen this intense an effort by the Democrat machine, including the pollsters, and it’s sucking in a lot of our media. A lot of conservative media’s getting sucked in by this. They’re buying it ’cause they get caught up in the bubble that is the world as created and defined every day by the mainstream media. Their lives hinge on polling. And of course the polling, if you look carefully, you can find flaws.
The polls are just being used as another tool of voter suppression. The polls are an attempt not to reflect public opinion, but to shape it. Yours. They want to depress the heck out of you, and they want to suppress your vote.”
Yeah it’s depressing all right. It’s tough when almost all the media are on the liberal team. It’s like having all the referees rooting for one side. One would think that people would be fed up from the nonstop spin being pushed upon us by the media.
And guess what? They are! I’m seeing it even from within the bastion of ObamaMania L.A. People outside the media bubble are not buying what the media are selling anymore.
I can confidently say that several of my friends and two family members, who voted for Obama in ’08, have confirmed to me that they will be voting for Romney in November. I have also noticed that normally silent conservatives in my office are starting to push back on all the liberal chatter, even bravely posting conservative posts on their Facebook pages.
The very success of the 2016 documentary, despite being shut out by the media, should cheer up conservatives.
Then we look at what happened in Wisconsin. Most polls had Scott Walker recalled, but Walker won the recall election bid, and by a bigger margin than when he was first on the ballot in 2010.
Lastly, let’s not forget that right up until the last moments of Reagan’s landslide win in 1980, polls and pundits alike had Carter ahead and winning.
The pundits have a vested interest in pretending this race stays close even if it’s not. The demand for airtime keeps the price high and lines many pockets. Plus they have a vested interest in keeping “their guy” in office.
I have faith in the American people and I know that when they go into the voting booth to vote on November 6, many (including a vast majority of Independents and old school Dems) will cast their vote for Romney/Ryan. I truly believe that the same silent majority who came out for Chick-fil-A in support of free speech are the same people who will stand in lines just as long to cast their votes.
As for me, even though California is a dark blue state, I would crawl over hot coals to get to the polls.
Greg Gutfeld summed it up succinctly on “The Five” a few weeks ago. He said, “Voting for a second term of Obama is like a house voting for termites.”
Hear, hear, Gutfield.